Growth decelerating materially; leading indicators weakening but recession not yet confirmed.
Leading indicators are weakening materially. Unemployment at 4.1% is showing strain and consumer confidence has fallen to 68. A recession is not yet confirmed but the probability is rising.
Key Signals
Regime Spectrum
Forward P/E ratios vs. 10-year historical averages — major indices, every GICS sector, and key industries.Trailing PE updated 8:01:42 AM.
S&P 500 Forward P/E
20.8x
Trailing P/E
32.0x
10-Year Average
17.6x
Premium / Discount
+18.2%
Fwd Earnings Growth
12.5%
Forward P/E based on consensus NTM earnings estimates. Historical averages represent 10-year rolling means. Trailing PE refreshed live via FMP at 8:01:42 AM. Sources: FactSet, S&P Global, Bloomberg consensus, Financial Modeling Prep.