Growth still positive but slowing as tight monetary policy and elevated rates begin to bite.
The economy remains resilient but monetary policy is restrictive (Fed funds at 3.64%). The yield curve is flat at 0.53%. Growth is decelerating and the risk of a policy-induced slowdown is rising. Historically, this phase precedes a slowdown or recession within 12–18 months.
Key Signals
Regime Spectrum
Forward P/E ratios vs. 10-year historical averages — major indices, every GICS sector, and key industries.37 trailing PE, 4 forward PE, 31 sparklines via FMP (11 sectors, 137 industries as of 2026-04-14).
S&P 500 Forward P/E
30.5x
31 analyst consensus
Trailing P/E
32.4x
10-Year Average
17.6x
Premium / Discount
+73.5%
Fwd Earnings Growth
12.5%
Forward P/E based on consensus NTM earnings estimates via FMP analyst-estimates endpoint. Historical averages represent 10-year rolling means. Trailing PE via FMP sector-pe-snapshot and industry-pe-snapshot (2026-04-14). Forward PE computed from analyst NTM EPS consensus and current price. 12-month sparklines from monthly sector/industry PE snapshots. Server-cached for 1 hour (trailing/forward) and 4 hours (history). Sources: FactSet, S&P Global, Bloomberg consensus, Financial Modeling Prep.